2026-09-10 - The Long Hill Report - Guest Mike Carnevale

Summary

This is a casual monthly financial/economic commentary show (sponsored by Raymond James Financial Services), hosted by Richard Morco with guest Michael Carnevale (financial advisor). Discussion centers on the Fed likely raising rates in mid-September amid rising inflation and oil prices (oil crossed $100), with September historically the worst month for stocks. They cover August market performance (S&P near 54,000-point milestone, third straight positive August), weakening technical indicators, global central banks also raising rates, and concern over the $40 trillion national debt. A large portion of the episode is politically charged banter — critiquing Trump administration promises (proposed $5,000 payments), the Venezuela oil situation, midterm election prospects, and general political commentary — interspersed with jobs-report data (162,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, ~95% held by women) and jobless claims near record lows. The tone throughout is informal and bantering rather than a formal financial briefing.

Transcript

0:00 | Michael Kaval is brand manager and financial advisor. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services Incorporated, 400 Southbridge Street in Auburn, Massachusetts. 1-800657-9126.
0:10 | [music]
0:13 | A member of FINRA SIPC and they're not [music] and are not deposits not insured by FDIC or any governmental agency, not
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0:33 | The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities [music] markets or developments referred to in
0:40 | the material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable. But we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or
0:47 | complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement [music] of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not
0:55 | constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Michael Carnival and not necessarily those of RJFs
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1:02 | or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are [music] subject to change without notice.
1:11 | Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen.
1:14 | Welcome to the lungful report conversations with I am here with Mike Carnival
1:23 | and I am Richard Morco and we are glad you are here and if you enjoy today's broadcast
1:32 | uh please um like and subscribe on YouTube if you can.
1:38 | Uh it's once again been another interesting month. Not as crazy as some
1:44 | others, but crazy. Uh we do we are looking at yield surge. Gas is going up.
1:53 | It's over five. Um in some spots, not just right here. Do you Does Mike think the Fed is going to raise the rate?
2:04 | I bet you they're going to. it it looks like they really really don't have much
2:10 | choice. Now we are seeing we we as a people are being bribed or the president
2:19 | of the United States is talking about bribing us when he's going to give us all 5,000 what were the parameters?
2:28 | $5,000 for every US citizen. every US citizen if the if the Republicans keep the House and Senate.
2:37 | Um, so bribery is in season, but then again, hasn't it always they always
2:45 | promise us this? Now, President Trump has been known to make a few promises.
2:53 | Uh, Mike, you want to go over a list of the ones he's kept? I just finished.
3:01 | There you go, ladies and gentlemen.
3:04 | I'm still waiting for my Doge check and my tariff rebate check I was supposed to be coming.
3:10 | This is a patient man. He's a patient man.
3:14 | Maybe they're going to lump all three together in just one big check.
3:18 | Why not? Yeah, I think that's reasonable.
3:21 | And um he's p Mike is patient and he's trusting. [laughter] What?
3:30 | Little different.
3:31 | Well, I wouldn't believe anything I heard now.
3:35 | Yeah, I was a trusting soul.
3:40 | So, um, anything else big in the news other than the great financial stuff?
3:47 | Well, I think it's, you know, it's been more of the same, right? You got the stock market continues to do well.
3:56 | uh oil prices and food prices continue to go up.
4:02 | Uh we continue to get stuff from the administration that I think we're surprised at what we hear. So in a sense really no nothing's really changed.
4:12 | One thing I'm going to bring up because we made a career for a couple of years here and you might probably did it
4:20 | before that with um Dick of talking about unbelievably brutal
4:29 | um increases in rates from the Turkish um central bank.
4:37 | It's turned around. I Yeah, the Turkey is the big guy.
4:42 | Yeah, they're they're they're moving out sharply.
4:45 | Uh at at the NATO um summit held in Turkey in in Ankara, they uh they were basic leaders of the pack.
4:57 | Mhm. Now Turkey, big important country, unbelievable
5:05 | defense um sector is an enemy is our ally, but they're an
5:13 | enemy of another ally, Israel.
5:19 | So, um that is, you know, we have we have two allies and they're enemies of each other. How does that make sense?
5:28 | It doesn't. But a lot of stuff doesn't make sense.
5:32 | So, um, anyway, enough fun in the international uh world.
5:38 | Well, I can't I can't before you end that. I I do have to say, you know, things change, right? You know, wait a minute, let me write that.
5:48 | Yes. Things T H I N G. Don't forget the S. Okay.
5:52 | Change. C H A C H A N G H E Okay, got it. Thanks.
6:00 | You know, everybody didn't Nobody liked turkey. Uh now they like turkey, but they don't like chicken.
6:09 | So things change.
6:12 | It's the temperature in here, by the way, that we have no AC. Uh you hurt yourself.
6:16 | I know. I feel it. Hopefully I'll recover. Although this time I'm not so sure. [laughter]
6:24 | So, um, the doctors will be by for Mike any minute now. They're bringing the nest.
6:31 | Yes. Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] Uh, but no, I mean, the market continues to do surprisingly well.
6:41 | And I beat you up with this all the time, right? What do I always say?
6:45 | Uh, it's inflation. That's No. Do I say that?
6:49 | You do. And I've my answer is well it's half that.
6:54 | You know it's half inflation and half actual growth. But we're starting to see and we didn't see it in the numbers
7:03 | through the end of August. But now that we're into September, we're starting to see some signs, right?
7:10 | Oil has really gone up quite a bit. Uh the latest inflation numbers which came out today
7:17 | are up which leads to thinking that the Fed's going to raise rates when they meet the middle of September.
7:25 | So things are starting to change now I think really.
7:30 | And September historically is the worst month of the 12 for for stocks. So we're
7:36 | kind of in a tough spot. Well, I don't know too much about Mr. Walsh.
7:44 | What I what little I've heard is he's not detached from reality, right?
7:50 | But he was appointed by somebody
7:52 | [snorts]
7:54 | who there is speculation might be detached from reality. Mhm.
8:01 | So one would reasonably expect in the current situation
8:09 | if you believe in C that central banking is a worthwhile institution and you wanted to not disgrace it completely
8:18 | have a a rate who might not prefer a rate increase.
8:24 | I would I would probably say the president.
8:26 | Do you think he has enough juice with Mr. Wash to put a put the kaibos on there.
8:32 | I don't think so because if it was just Kevin Walsh making the decision. Okay, maybe. But
8:40 | there's 11 other people who are going to be voting and he certainly doesn't have he doesn't have that much.
8:47 | He doesn't have the sway with at least three of them.
8:50 | You know, Powell obviously um the guy from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, he doesn't have him. And um who's the the one in San Francisco?
9:02 | So, you know, you figure you got three voting for hikes, you only need three more.
9:13 | So, it'll be interesting to see if they do raise interest rates and the futures market is saying they are going to raise
9:21 | rates in the middle of this month, middle of September. It'll be interesting to see what the reaction will be, you know. Well, if they don't
9:29 | if they if they say they lowered them or if they just if they stay the same, they might get away with something, I think.
9:38 | But if they actually lowered them, the screaming and yelling in the nashing of teeth uh would be uh brutal.
9:47 | Yeah, there's no chance that they'll cut rates. Uh the odds right now are around 70% that they will raise them.
9:55 | Um and you you know you probably have to right because inflation is going starting to the rate is starting to
10:02 | increase again. Oil today is well over $100. So you have to do something to
10:09 | well the the oil I think it's kind of a little bit an independent thing in that um a lot of that some of that is determined on another continent.
10:21 | Right. Yeah. So, uh, um, that I think that's going to go up no matter what. If if if they raise the rates, if they
10:29 | brought inflation to zero, supply and demand is a different thing there.
10:36 | Yeah. I mean, um, and supposedly all the positive stuff
10:44 | that has happened has not translated to bringing down any of those numbers. So, whoa, whoa, what positive?
10:55 | Well, I think the Venezuela situation is positive.
10:58 | Oh, you know, I I have to think about that for, you know, it was piracy. Oh, yeah.
11:06 | It was criminal. Yeah. Yes.
11:08 | Um and it was actually a blow against China just as much as it was a lot of it.
11:15 | Uh so but yeah, you you know um you could steal something and say, "Hey,
11:22 | that was good." And maybe technically it may turn out that way, but I don't feel good about it.
11:30 | No, no, no. But I mean it's um And did it and has it ated. No, nothing.
11:36 | So, so there it is. It's a good thing, but it hasn't really worked.
11:40 | Well, will it work? It's a good headline.
11:43 | And I think, you know, some uh uh analysts who follow the the oil industry
11:50 | say uh yeah, basically the V Venezuelan uh production side is it's worth
11:57 | nothing. It all has to be remade because they've done nothing in 10 years. So most well a lot of analysts
12:05 | have said it could be five years before we know whether this is going to work in our favor or not.
12:14 | Okay. So that maybe it wasn't headline sounds good but it's not going to have most a lot of analysts say it's
12:21 | not going to have an immediate effect on the price of of oil.
12:27 | And you know there's been a lot of stuff like that right going on. And it's sort of like
12:37 | each time it's sort of like each time you try to do somebody tries to do something that
12:44 | doesn't work, they then have they follow that up with something even more bizarre to try to make that work. I think that's
12:52 | what we're in. Feels like we're in that area now. In other words, uh you know, the Venezuela thing didn't work out. uh
13:00 | we don't have Cuba, we don't have Greenland, Canada doesn't seem to be cooperating with us. So now I'm going to give everybody $5,000. It's sort of like
13:09 | it's more and more desperate things and you know, geez, you hope he doesn't, you know, you hope the ultimate desperate
13:17 | thing doesn't happen where he launches a new, right?
13:21 | Well, you know, I believe you're going to say, hey, these are Republicans are back mega Republican. I blame the Democrats.
13:30 | Oh. Oh, abs. Oh, they're both to blame. Both sides.
13:32 | Well, why I blame the Democrats is uh it's like um the crazy uncle comes down to dinner, throws up all the over the
13:42 | kitchen table to and uh some people just pretend it doesn't happen, right?
13:48 | Well, they're not pretending that it that Trump is bad. They'll say Trump is bad. What they should be saying is
13:56 | impeachment. They impeached him twice for something Mueller basically came out and said no nothing here and they impeached him twice and now
14:04 | me mouthed um but uh we're in Massachusetts here.
14:11 | Yes, I watched um I don't watch too much TV, but I saw a uh commercial for Ed Maki. Okay.
14:22 | Who's a dim bulb of all dim bulbs? And there's all the Democrats saying Ed Marky is a god.
14:32 | He's a fighter.
14:33 | Ed Marky makes God look like a Yeah.
14:36 | That's basically the way they were talking. Yeah.
14:39 | You know, so there there's Liza down in Washington. There's uh Oenclaus. There's who are the other Well, you have Neil in the western part of the state.
14:49 | you have uh I will say McGovern has put out some
14:54 | good YouTube videos. Uh it's u you know he's he's on the Senate. He's on the
15:02 | House floor. There's probably nobody in the room when he's doing this, but I they've been kind of entertaining.
15:08 | Um say the impeachment word. Yeah. Say um hey cabinet 25th amendment.
15:17 | Yeah. Come on. The guys on interplanetary travel without leaving the ground.
15:22 | Unfortunately, the cabinet is as screwy as the uh Yeah, that that's true. But at least at least you're shame. You know what
15:30 | they say, the nuns used to say, you must go tell the truth and shame the devil. Yeah. Yeah.
15:36 | Telling the truth is not a Congress a Congress. No. thing to do.
15:43 | No. No.
15:45 | And you know, you know, we got a couple of months to to see whether this is going to stop or it's going to
15:53 | be much worse. I'm not convinced, you know.
15:57 | Well, what do you Let's get some odds here. Let's call what is it? Poly market or one of those betting things. Well, I think I think it'll be a
16:07 | a big loss for the administration, but I'm not willing to bet any of my own money on it.
16:14 | You know, if it were just my neighbor and I say, "Well, I'll take uh I'll take the Democrats uh the Republicans
16:22 | winning. I'd take the Democrats winning, but I would never go to one of those markets, you know." Right.
16:28 | Right. Um, so it's it's it's but it's getting it's getting worse and
16:37 | worse as you say. It's like the the person you know who's he's kind of losing it, huh? Oh jeez, I didn't notice. And then you see three months
16:45 | later she's and you say, you know, you're right. He's really bad. You're seeing it in real time in real time every day and nobody's saying anything.
16:56 | I mean, it's and now they've got the Republican midterm convention
17:05 | and you know, um, you know, we have cameras here, right?
17:11 | With cameras, you can aim them certain ways that show a monster crowd or that can show there's nobody there. And it's basically nobody there, right?
17:23 | Oh, who would model, right? I mean, you know, free tickets, come on. Um,
17:30 | and you know, it's sort of like he spoke, the president spoke last night for an hour and 45 minutes. That's
17:38 | something you see in Russia or did you listen to that?
17:41 | No, but I did uh, you know, at work today we we have CNBC coming through, so they were playing bits and pieces of it.
17:50 | You know, it's sort of like, you know, more of the same, right? You know, I was the smartest this one. You know, you
17:58 | know, the doctor said, "Sir, sir, we've never seen a person more healthier than you." You know, it's all this nonsense.
18:05 | I haven't seen him saying they're almost ready to canonize me because I'm so humble.
18:11 | No, that one I've never seen.
18:13 | Well, I there will be a statue erected, I'm sure.
18:17 | You know, there hasn't been one already. Uh, not that we know of, but he's too busy with the ark and and the ballroom.
18:25 | I mean, it's really, you know, he chopped down all the weeping willow trees in front of the uh Kennedy Center
18:33 | because he because why? Because they didn't allow him to keep his name there.
18:36 | It's this is really it's beneath I don't care, you know, if you're a Democrat, Republican, independent, it's beneath
18:44 | the position to be doing stuff like this really. But that's kind of where it's kind of scary. That's where we are right
18:52 | now. Meanwhile, oh, by the way, yeah, the stock market went up in August.
18:58 | So, I'm I'm not going to say as I usually do. Wasn't that mostly inflation? Half.
19:04 | And you're not going to say, as you usually do, half of it. That's correct. That's correct.
19:09 | Okay. August ranked 10th of 12 for performance. Usually not a good month. Last two have been positive.
19:17 | Yeah. make it three in a row as two 2026 was up 1.3%. Yeah. For the months. Mike is celebrating.
19:26 | Yeah. All right.
19:28 | But it's but it's starting to lose some steam because August had three alltime Yes. August had three all-time highs in
19:36 | the down, but they all happened in the first week of August. So, I think we're starting to lose some Okay. some of the steam, but it did get over 50 54,000 for the first time.
19:48 | 4,000 devalued dollars. Yeah, why not?
19:52 | We have a little bit of a I hear you. I hear you.
19:55 | Bonds, rates fell. The 30-year fell a little bit. Uh 13-week kind of stayed about
20:03 | where it is and the yield curve fell a bit. Um, but that doesn't really matter now because those numbers have all
20:10 | changed, you know, in the last uh couple of weeks. But as I said earlier, we're entering in September, which historically is the worst month of the year.
20:19 | I I can see that it's my birth month. So, yeah, I did my best.
20:25 | You tried to make that hard. Uh, but the last two have been positive.
20:30 | So, uh, as we start September now, we have a way to go because we're down, you know, about a thousand points from the
20:38 | end of the month. So, a little more than a thousand.
20:41 | What do you think will happen if we do have the rates go up?
20:45 | Well, it's interesting. You know, the market has really dropped has dropped since uh the end of August. Uh, I think
20:53 | there's some fear that the Fed won't do anything about
21:00 | inflation. So, if they do raise interest rates, I wouldn't be surprised if the market goes up.
21:07 | I think if they if they don't raise rates, I think it's going to be more of what we've seen recently, a slow decline.
21:15 | Okay. Um there's no doubt that inflation speed is picking up again and a lot of that is
21:23 | energy. Now you got diesel of course and now we're into the home heating oil season. So this all is not,
21:31 | you know, not not going to be a great picture if if you can't, you know, bring down the rate of inflation.
21:43 | From a personal standpoint, I wish him the best. I wish them the best of luck. I do too. Reality is that which does not go away.
21:51 | Correct. All right, technicals. Go get them.
21:55 | They got a little weaker even though the market did increase, but again, we we could be fooled by August. It was
22:05 | the first week in August and then we slowly lost, but we didn't lose enough to turn the month negative. So the technical indicators did weaken a bit.
22:15 | Uh short-term moving average stayed about the same. Volatility, the fear index continues to be really
22:22 | low. That's a negative. Um the stochcastic oscillator is high. That's a negative. And the fear and greed index
22:31 | is kind of right in the middle. So there there's a lot more room for these numbers to
22:39 | deteriorate rather than get better. And again, it's all happening within the worst month, you know, of the year.
22:48 | Uh some countries, central banks are starting to raise interest rates in August. Um South Korea raised their rate
22:58 | recently. Um to to today the European Central Bank raised their interest rates. Next week
23:06 | we got the Fed likely to raise odds say in um the Bank of England meets next week. So we might now are looking toward
23:15 | now central banks around the world cutting rates um excuse me raising rates
23:23 | that can you know can cut both ways. I for us I think it'll be a good thing because it would
23:31 | show that they're serious about trying to slow down inflation.
23:36 | Why wouldn't you think it would be a good thing elsewhere? I mean if if they're suffering inflation too.
23:43 | Well, some of those aren't their inflation is not as persistent as ours. Okay.
23:50 | So I think uh you know Europe Europe is kind of behind us as far as growth and
23:57 | whatnot. So an increase in rates there might not be as positive as they would be for us.
24:05 | The big thing is the debt. Oh, we don't have any debt. Uh 40 trillion.
24:14 | And you say, well, what does that really mean?
24:17 | More than double what it was 10 years ago.
24:21 | Um I think we should do what uh by Germany and Zimbabwe did. That'll cure everything.
24:31 | Yeah. Yeah. And the reaction from the administration on that number was, well, we should have the lowest interest rates
24:40 | in the world. It It's sort of like and and not to pick on on on the guy,
24:47 | but for somebody who is the smartest person in the room because he's told us he is.
24:56 | Not in this room, of course. Uh no, not in this room, but in his room. Uh you
25:03 | know, it's the padded one. Um it's sort of like basic economics.
25:11 | He doesn't understand if you've got a lot of debt, the last thing you want to do is encourage more debt. And you
25:18 | encourage more debt by having cheap money, by having low interest rates, right? So you need to do the exact opposite.
25:28 | to a certain extent. I mean, you go to too far and then you, you know, shut the economy off. But to say we should have
25:35 | the lowest interest rates in the world, that's like saying they've cut egg prices by 600%.
25:43 | It doesn't make any sense. And for somebody who says he was the smartest student at Wharton,
25:52 | that's hard to believe. I think we have to give out of charity.
26:01 | I think we have to ignore his claims on anything where he's superlative. Just just ignore him. I
26:09 | mean it's not you know I understand it is whacko but
26:15 | you know okay Liz everybody impeach the guy or at least bring it up at least you
26:23 | know go go into the house where it starts and say we want to impeach the man
26:31 | just so you get on the record that you think this has got to be done. Yeah.
26:35 | Stop talking about it. you know, we know he's a nut by now.
26:39 | Yeah, but it's not going to happen.
26:43 | No, it's not going to happen. Um Oh, I I think the uh the Democrats, let's
26:51 | salivate now over the midterms, right? And that's dishonest.
26:56 | Yeah. But and you know, like I I I hear people saying things like and I say, "Yeah, no, that's a plan." Uh, but what's your plan
27:05 | if it that doesn't happen? In other words, they figure, oh, we're going to sweep the midterms and then we'll Yeah,
27:14 | that's a strategy. But what's your plan if that doesn't happen? You stay silent for two more years or you just disappear as an opposition.
27:24 | Well, as as we mentioned earlier, I wouldn't go to poly market, right? But I I I [clears throat]
27:32 | cannot imagine this administration winning the house. It's something at
27:40 | least at least one house and quite possibly both. I would agree, but it wouldn't shock me.
27:49 | That that would it shouldn't shock me.
27:52 | I'll say it shouldn't shock me, but I would have to say there's no sanity in this country.
27:59 | No, no, no.
28:00 | Um, the people who were MAGA and he's betrayed all their promises, including no wars and everything, right?
28:08 | If they actually go to the polls, you know, that's a test for insanity.
28:14 | U indeed.
28:20 | Uh, oil doesn't really matter. It started the month at 85. It ended the month at 83. But, you know, two weeks into September, we're over 100. So, it
28:28 | doesn't um Yeah. September's a new world. Right. Right. Inflation we know rose.
28:36 | Uh leading economic indicators were actually positive in July. Um but the two big ones uh consumer expectations
28:45 | and the um the um um work week both were negative. And
28:54 | those are the two components that have the most waiting in the index of 10 of 10 components. And why? Because they
29:03 | make up the bulk of our economy. you know, people working and how do they feel about themselves and the economy in
29:10 | the way of spending. Both of those keep being negative. So that's uh you know the headline number looks good. Oh
29:18 | leaning economic positive only the you know and getting better but not the components you want to see get better.
29:28 | Jobless claims really at record lows. I mean it's hard to explain but that is hard to explain.
29:36 | It is.
29:37 | I was hope that's why we invited you here. Yeah.
29:40 | I guess we I mean it is it has been hovering around the 200,000 mark for weeks now. Um
29:48 | and today's number came Thursday. They come out on Thursday. Today's number was 206,000. I mean you need at least
29:55 | historically you needed 250,000 layoffs a week to hurt the economy. I don't know maybe that number doesn't isn't isn't um
30:04 | isn't as high anymore because it certainly hasn't helped.
30:09 | The another reason why there's some talk about higher interest rates is the employment report came out uh for the month of July and um
30:18 | a lot more 162,000 new non-farm payroll jobs were created.
30:24 | Historically, you need 150,000 to grow the economy. Unemployment fell.
30:31 | So, um, that would lead you to believe that, well, the economy isn't in that bad a
30:38 | shape, so you're going to have to, how do you slow it down? One of the ways is to raise interest rates. But the interesting thing on that employment
30:46 | report is that of the 162,000 jobs that we created, I believe it was 95% were women.
30:57 | So, what are they doing? I don't know what that means. Okay.
31:02 | But it was the vast majority of new jobs that were
31:07 | created in um in um July were uh women in the workforce. I don't know what that means.
31:17 | Uh well, it's probably it's not lumberjacks, right?
31:22 | And it's probably not minors or manufacturing.
31:26 | some lot of there's a lot of light manufacturing that existed in this country that was mostly women. Okay.
31:35 | Um, one of the sectors that lost jobs was education. So, you would think the education field is probably
31:42 | Well, I saw I saw a a little show, YouTube or something. This guy goes to a
31:51 | beach and he's asking people questions like, um, who was the first president of the United States? And they're all
32:00 | getting wrong. Uh, what's 100 divided by 20? Nobody can answer it. Now, it's often, you know, uh I haven't been to
32:09 | the beach all summer, so I know that guy didn't come up to me, but um it's also possible that he
32:15 | selected his um uh his audience and well, he edited out the people who got it right.
32:25 | But watching that, I'm saying shut down the schools. Yeah. It's a waste of money.
32:31 | Yeah. No, it's it's shocking in a lot of ways.
32:41 | That's what we've become.
32:44 | Well, I I think I told you that I I don't know if I was telling you I was listening to the Chinese fellow. Yes.
32:51 | And another Chinese fellow, an American.
32:54 | None of them said, you know, things such as I was like, you know, perfect English,
33:01 | right? brilliantly perfect English. Uh, eloquence. And now we know what we're up against.
33:10 | No ums and a um um um they didn't watch this. [laughter] Okay.
33:19 | It was just fluent. Yeah. Fluency.
33:22 | Um and uh we don't see that as we like don't see that as like much anymore.
33:30 | Um, I understand.
33:33 | Ladies and gentlemen, again, we ask you to if you if you were not completely offended today, please hit like and subscribe.
33:42 | Don't forget to hype.
33:44 | That's the new one. I guess I say um and please like and subscribe and um
33:53 | we should Michael Carnival and Richard Morco, we should be back again next month. is an economy. If we think if
34:02 | nothing [music] if not if it hasn't gone completely away [music] and there is an economy, we hope to be back.
34:10 | I think we'll be able to stay ahead of AI at least for another month.
34:13 | It's going to [music] be tough. It's going to be hard. It's going to be race. Don't fall.
34:19 | Thank you, Michael. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.
34:22 | [music]