2026-10-08 - The Long Hill Report - Guest Mike Carnevale

Summary

This is the monthly financial/economic commentary show (sponsored by Raymond James Financial Services), hosted by Richard Morco with guest Michael Carnevale (financial advisor). Built from ASR auto-captions, so names and figures may be garbled. The episode opens with midterm-election banter (Nadia Miller running again against Richie Neil, Ireland's "spoil the ballot" campaign, and a general lament about the quality of candidates and the ongoing war). Carnevale then reviews September: historically the worst month, the Dow fell over 2,200 points (about 4.5%) to close under 51,000 after peaking near 54,000 in August, with no new closing highs; the third quarter was down roughly 3% but the Dow is still up about 6% year to date. Rates were the main theme: the 30-year Treasury rose from 5.3% to almost 5.7%, a New York Fed report tied the rise to tariffs and the Iran war, and the IMF warned that inflation and rates are getting out of hand. The Fed hiked 25 basis points to 4% under Chair Walsh and is likely to raise again at its end-of-October meeting, with the mid-month inflation number expected to decide it; central banks in Europe and Japan are also raising rates. They discuss the local impact of energy costs (diesel over $6, oil near $100, propane and heating oil), including the host weighing an ~$80,000 geothermal heating system. Technical indicators sit at zero, jobless claims are near a 57-year low, and they raise stagflation as the worst-case scenario. The show closes with the 25th anniversary of 9/11 (market closure) and long-term-investing point ($10,000 invested then is about $115,000 now) and a lighthearted Red Sox/Yankees wild-card stock-market "indicator." The tone is informal, not a formal briefing.

Issues discussed: None specific to Charlton town government (financial commentary only).

Transcript

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1:00 | opinions are those of Michael Carnival
1:02 | and [music] not necessarily those of
1:04 | RJFs or Raymond James. Expressions
1:07 | [music] of opinion are as of this date
1:09 | and the subject of change without
1:10 | notice.
1:13 | Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and
1:15 | welcome to the Longill Report
1:18 | Conversations with I am your host
1:21 | Richard Morco are always our guest Mike
1:25 | Carvalo and we will be discussing where
1:29 | things are going in this world
1:31 | economically and a few other aspects.
1:35 | By the time you hear us again,
1:38 | I believe we will have had or it would
1:41 | have been very close to the midterms.
1:44 | and um what to inspect in.
1:48 | Last year we had or two years ago we had
1:51 | Nadia Miller on who was running for um
1:56 | uh congresswoman
1:59 | in our district
2:01 | and she [clears throat] is running again
2:05 | Richie Neil, the eternal Richie Neil who
2:09 | uh oh I don't know why he keeps running.
2:12 | I mean, but he keeps running.
2:15 | Anyway,
2:17 | um I've had some thoughts about that.
2:19 | Now, I I liked Nadia.
2:23 | I thought, uh I don't agree with
2:25 | everything she said, but I thought she
2:27 | was miles ahead of Richie Neil, which in
2:32 | the great foot race of life isn't that
2:34 | difficult. But, um I've had some
2:38 | thoughts about it. I I will vote for
2:40 | her.
2:41 | But across the country,
2:44 | the rep the Democrats
2:47 | figure to to win big, and I think they
2:50 | probably will because I mean, they
2:53 | didn't start a war, but they have not
2:56 | really opposed one, right? And that's
3:00 | the thing. This is a horribly stupid
3:03 | war. Uh the war and and they
3:10 | W walk waddle around it, but every
3:13 | anything any money they'll vote for it.
3:17 | The Ukraine, they've always supported
3:20 | the Ukraine war. What's the point?
3:24 | So, is there a reason to vote for them?
3:27 | I don't know if I mentioned what
3:29 | happened to in the last our last edition
3:32 | if we if I mentioned what happened in
3:34 | Ireland.
3:35 | >> No.
3:37 | uh they had a presidential election,
3:38 | >> okay?
3:39 | >> And they had three people, three non-
3:42 | entities running because that's what
3:44 | they have, you know,
3:45 | >> uh that they haven't had a really
3:48 | important president since probably the
3:51 | 1950s.
3:52 | >> Okay.
3:54 | >> And um these are people in hawk to uh
3:59 | the European Union.
4:02 | >> And so the voters said, "You know what?
4:05 | What's the point? So, they had a
4:08 | campaign spoil the vote.
4:10 | >> Oh, really?
4:11 | >> So, in Ireland, if if you if you get a
4:14 | ballot
4:16 | and you write on it uh instead of
4:18 | putting in a candidate, you write on it
4:21 | yada or any other little catchphrase.
4:24 | Yeah.
4:24 | >> And you turn it in, it's counted in the
4:26 | ballots.
4:27 | >> Oh, really?
4:28 | >> Over 20% Well over 20% spoiled the
4:32 | ballot.
4:33 | >> Really?
4:33 | >> And they got a lot of No. What's going
4:35 | on here? Don't don't people approve of
4:38 | uh our golden people?
4:40 | >> Mhm.
4:41 | >> Well, a lot of people deferred against
4:43 | it.
4:46 | Why are people voting either? You know,
4:48 | I can understand why people aren't
4:50 | voting for the Republicans.
4:51 | >> They're behind this war.
4:54 | But why are they behind the Democrats?
4:58 | >> Oh, I don't know if they are. I think
4:59 | it's just that well, there's nobody else
5:00 | to vote for. And
5:01 | >> that's the point.
5:02 | >> Yeah.
5:03 | >> And that's the point. If we had a
5:05 | situation where people in this country
5:09 | could cast ballots that said we're for
5:12 | neither of them,
5:14 | somebody might say, "Hey, you know,
5:15 | something's going on here."
5:17 | >> Can I leave now because I got one right
5:19 | answer.
5:22 | >> I don't want to push my luck.
5:23 | >> You probably won't. [laughter]
5:25 | And we don't want you to push your luck.
5:27 | So, you don't have to say anything at
5:29 | all for the rest of
5:30 | >> Nothing. Silence from now on. [laughter]
5:32 | and and
5:33 | >> but no, you're right.
5:36 | >> What's the point of voting for either
5:38 | side?
5:39 | >> So, I will vote for Nadia if she were
5:42 | not running. What could I do? I you
5:45 | know, you can write it yourself, I
5:46 | guess. And
5:47 | >> or just leave it blank.
5:48 | >> No, that won't count. That will if if
5:50 | they if you leave it back, that won't
5:53 | even count it.
5:53 | >> Well, it'll show up as uh blank balance.
5:56 | >> I tried to find that out. I I'm not
5:59 | sure. But uh it's a pity because I mean
6:03 | this is a a pitiful system.
6:08 | It's Yeah. I mean
6:12 | it's what's
6:15 | attracting.
6:17 | It's the candidates we're attracting.
6:20 | Well,
6:24 | Alexis Dtoqueville, greatest writer on
6:26 | American democracy ever in the 19th
6:29 | century. You don't get really, really
6:33 | smart people running in America.
6:37 | Okay, let's take some people who are
6:39 | brilliant people like Steve Jobs built a
6:42 | big
6:42 | >> right
6:43 | >> Warren Buffett Buffett Buffet whatever
6:46 | you want to call Warren Buffett
6:48 | >> built a huge
6:50 | um financial engine or stock engine.
6:55 | Does anybody think that um say either of
7:01 | the Bushes
7:03 | uh Obama or any of the other people were
7:07 | or certainly Biden were anywhere near
7:11 | the league of say a Buffett or or a
7:14 | Jobs?
7:15 | No,
7:17 | you got another thing right.
7:20 | And I said I wasn't. Now I'm going to
7:21 | push my luck. I'm going to keep talking
7:23 | now. I might miss.
7:24 | >> Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for coming.
7:26 | We
7:27 | >> I might be on a streak here. No, I mean,
7:29 | but I think a lot of the those people
7:31 | are technology
7:35 | sector people.
7:36 | >> Well, that Well, see, that was to's
7:38 | point. They can do much much better.
7:40 | They're they're smarter. They're genius.
7:44 | A lot of them they can become rich and
7:48 | powerful by doing something,
7:50 | >> right? and um the the the Richie Deals
7:55 | the uh
7:58 | all the others uh
8:01 | they just you know well I don't think I
8:04 | I don't I don't think there's anything
8:09 | wrong with those people but
8:12 | they've
8:14 | they've spent too much time. In other
8:16 | words, they haven't come in had some
8:18 | ideas come in whether they were good
8:20 | ideas or not or worked or didn't and
8:22 | then leave. It's that they get in and
8:24 | then they don't want to leave.
8:25 | >> That's a big thing of it. I mean, but I
8:28 | don't think that any of them have done
8:29 | even if the first five years that our
8:32 | first well two two year terms say their
8:34 | first six years, yeah, probably they
8:36 | should leave, but I haven't seen any of
8:38 | them done do anything genius.
8:41 | >> Well, I think they've all gotten
8:42 | progressively worse and worse.
8:44 | >> Yeah. Uh but I I think you find that
8:47 | with in a lot of sectors where somebody
8:50 | has been in the same position for
8:53 | decades, they do tend to lighten up as
8:55 | they
8:57 | you know go on in in in years of term.
9:01 | >> All right. Take take a take Okay. Take
9:04 | Jobs started
9:07 | >> Apple.
9:08 | >> Yeah.
9:08 | >> Kind of lost it,
9:09 | >> right?
9:10 | >> Got it back,
9:11 | >> right?
9:11 | >> Got I think he was smart to begin with.
9:13 | >> Mhm. Yeah.
9:14 | >> And I would ever be at that age than
9:16 | what he said.
9:16 | >> No, I hear you.
9:17 | >> Uh but I think he also learned a lot.
9:20 | >> Yep.
9:21 | >> And I think Buffett probably
9:23 | progressively learned a lot.
9:26 | >> Like you his his big investment was
9:29 | Coke,
9:29 | >> right?
9:30 | >> Yeah.
9:30 | >> American Express.
9:32 | >> Oh, Geico was the real one that did
9:34 | >> Geico big. Yeah. That
9:36 | >> that's the one that did it.
9:37 | >> Yeah. So, and this is sharp sharp land.
9:41 | Yeah. And then there are other people
9:43 | who've tried to follow in his steps that
9:47 | have not been able to do it.
9:48 | >> Yeah.
9:49 | >> And they and they didn't run for office
9:51 | though.
9:51 | >> Right.
9:52 | >> Right. know
9:55 | it's
9:58 | the the government is real is a really I
10:02 | mean with a war like we have which could
10:04 | turn nuclear
10:06 | >> um
10:08 | >> I think a lot of people you know vote
10:11 | against somebody rather than really
10:12 | force someone
10:14 | >> you know I've had some discussions about
10:16 | between Nadia about uh Neil and I've had
10:20 | people saying the man's god
10:24 | I mean,
10:26 | >> in the Richie Neil as a man is a god,
10:31 | I'm an atheist.
10:33 | >> Uhhuh.
10:34 | >> I'm not an atheist, but in his case, I'm
10:37 | an atheist.
10:38 | >> I don't really know anything about him
10:39 | because he's not in my district. So,
10:41 | >> Oh, I I He's not in
10:43 | >> No, we have uh McGovern.
10:45 | >> Oh, well, there's a there's a saint who
10:48 | deserves Kenny Kennedy. I don't really
10:50 | know anything about
10:52 | Neil other than like you said every two
10:55 | years you see his his uh acceptance
10:58 | speech on TV but other than that I I I
11:01 | don't know from the like a a dayto-day
11:03 | or monthtomonth or what he does or
11:05 | >> can you can you uh remember anything uh
11:09 | profound about his acceptance or his
11:12 | victory speeches or no
11:15 | anything profound?
11:17 | No, but
11:20 | >> well, I can't compare the two because I
11:21 | don't know the other one.
11:22 | >> Oh, I'm not comparing those. I'm just
11:23 | saying I mean
11:26 | >> my district is Neil. Your district is
11:29 | McGovern. And I um I did meet McGover I
11:33 | mean Neil about it when he first got
11:37 | elected.
11:37 | >> Mhm.
11:38 | >> And the welming was under.
11:41 | >> Okay.
11:42 | >> Uh so you know it's it's what you get.
11:45 | >> Yeah. I mean, I've met a few people over
11:48 | the years and in person they're they're
11:52 | pretty good. I don't know whether it's
11:54 | once they get to Washington or Boston or
11:59 | wherever,
12:02 | they somehow change a bit. But I don't
12:04 | think any of these are really bad
12:06 | people. It's just that
12:09 | I I don't know. I can't
12:11 | I don't know. But they're different.
12:15 | Yeah.
12:16 | >> Yeah.
12:17 | >> Uh I don't think anybody Well, who who
12:20 | say you know if you wake up in the
12:22 | morning and say I'm going to be the b
12:24 | most vicious person I can be. I don't
12:27 | think even
12:27 | >> no
12:28 | >> even even they but they kind of they'll
12:31 | go along.
12:32 | >> Oh I don't know if it's I don't know if
12:34 | it's with has to do with the fundraising
12:36 | the money the lobbying. I don't know but
12:39 | it's something.
12:43 | Well,
12:46 | I do remember when when uh
12:49 | who's a guy was running, he tried to run
12:52 | for president. Um [snorts] I'm so and so
12:54 | and I'm reporting for duty.
12:57 | I he was our senator and he ran for
13:00 | president.
13:01 | >> Uh Carrie
13:02 | >> Kerry I remember I was
13:05 | >> right again.
13:06 | >> Oh my god. The pacemaker.
13:09 | >> I bet you it snows tonight. [laughter]
13:12 | Don't push along. Anyway, I was part of
13:16 | an organization. It was a little
13:19 | in the in the scheme of things, new
13:22 | scheme of things, it was a little little
13:23 | tray, but he agreed to meet with us.
13:26 | >> Okay.
13:26 | >> But we we couldn't actually say he was
13:30 | me. It had to sort of be kind of secret.
13:32 | >> Mhm. Um and uh so we had a a we had we
13:36 | met with him for a while and we finally
13:40 | said, "Okay, when you get if you get to
13:41 | Washington, he's the senator."
13:43 | >> Mhm.
13:43 | >> Would you join the organization that
13:46 | supports what we support?
13:48 | >> I promise you I will.
13:50 | >> So he leaves. We all stand up. He
13:53 | leaves. Everybody turns to each other
13:56 | and said, "We were just lied to."
13:58 | >> Right.
13:58 | >> We were.
13:59 | >> Yeah.
14:00 | >> I think a lot of that
14:03 | you know, gets repeated, right? I think
14:05 | it it's but I
14:09 | >> it's all driven by money and special
14:12 | interests and
14:12 | >> Oh, yeah.
14:14 | >> You know, your group wasn't powerful
14:16 | enough.
14:18 | >> We were powerful enough to get a
14:20 | meeting,
14:20 | >> right?
14:21 | >> And we were powerful enough to be lied
14:23 | to,
14:23 | >> right?
14:24 | >> But we were not powerful enough that he
14:26 | would follow through.
14:27 | >> Yeah.
14:28 | >> So, it was a lesson in power in its own
14:30 | right.
14:30 | >> Yeah.
14:32 | All right.
14:33 | >> I think that's Yeah. I mean, I think but
14:35 | I don't think it's going to change.
14:40 | >> To me, it is that's no faith, ladies and
14:43 | gentlemen. I've tried. I've tried.
14:46 | [laughter]
14:48 | >> All right. Now, we're getting two
14:52 | results here.
14:53 | >> Well, I don't know if we want to, but
14:55 | we'll we I guess we got to do it
14:56 | anyways, right?
14:58 | >> It's a tough dirty job. Somebody's got
15:00 | to do it. September, you know,
15:03 | historically is the worst month.
15:06 | It lived up to expectations
15:08 | this year. Uh Dow fell over 2200 points,
15:13 | but that's like almost 4 and a.5% down
15:17 | in a month after so many months of
15:20 | either positive returns or, you know,
15:24 | not much up or down. So, it really felt
15:27 | like September was like a really bad
15:31 | month.
15:33 | Um, there were no new all-time closing
15:35 | highs during the month and the Dow went
15:39 | under 51,000. You know, it peaked in
15:42 | August at like 54,000
15:45 | and something. So, you know, closed the
15:49 | month under 51,000. So in four weeks it
15:53 | dropped, you know, from uh the high
15:57 | point to the low point, you know,
16:00 | thousands of points.
16:01 | >> So two past two were positive. This one,
16:06 | >> this one was a really bad month.
16:08 | >> Yeah.
16:08 | >> Okay. Um and that being my birth month,
16:12 | I'm kind of disappointed in that.
16:15 | >> What can you do?
16:18 | Uh, you can't go back in time and change
16:20 | your birth month.
16:21 | >> I had no I had no intention of doing
16:24 | that.
16:24 | >> Okay.
16:25 | >> Uh, if only because I can't.
16:27 | >> Well, why would one want to? I mean,
16:29 | does the birth month have anything to
16:31 | Oh, let's go on.
16:33 | >> Uh, everything has something to do with
16:36 | everything. You can you can you know
16:39 | what do they say in economics? You can
16:42 | prove whatever you want to prove.
16:44 | Well, I I I think I told you about the
16:48 | famous um
16:50 | economic folk tale about how one of the
16:53 | the government decided we're going to
16:55 | get to the bottom of what what's
16:57 | happening in the economy.
16:59 | So, they called out called every
17:01 | economist they could get to come in and
17:05 | and
17:07 | this is probably a long time ago. They
17:10 | they question him and question question
17:13 | and finally an old southern senator says
17:15 | to the last one, "Sir, we brought you
17:18 | all in here and you all disagree.
17:23 | Do you have anyone
17:25 | that you people agree knows what they're
17:29 | talking about?"
17:31 | And the say, "Oh, well, there's two of
17:33 | them. There's a fellow with the Bank of
17:35 | England in London and somebody with
17:38 | Rothschilds in Paris and we we tend to
17:40 | think they know what they're talking
17:41 | about. Father sir, we got two people
17:44 | agree two people who who know what
17:47 | they're talking about. What do they say?
17:50 | Fellow looked serious and said they
17:53 | disagree.
17:55 | Yeah, we're tomorrow, ladies and
17:58 | gentlemen, the stock market will be
18:00 | either up or down. Okay.
18:03 | >> And there's an odd chance that it could
18:04 | do nothing.
18:06 | >> Whoa.
18:08 | >> Okay. So, um, September was not good.
18:11 | >> No.
18:12 | >> So, we also ended the third quarter, the
18:14 | end of September. That was not good
18:15 | either. It was down roughly 3%.
18:18 | But we had a great first six months and
18:21 | that still carried us through the end of
18:23 | September positive. Uh, so year to date
18:26 | after three quarters, uh, Dow's up 6%.
18:29 | the other indexes are up a lot more, but
18:32 | um the Dow itself is up six six percent.
18:34 | So, it's been a good year. Just hasn't
18:38 | felt that way in the last, you know,
18:39 | four or five weeks.
18:42 | >> Feeling.
18:43 | >> Yes.
18:45 | >> Okay. Well, we feel we we have another
18:47 | quarter left,
18:49 | >> correct?
18:49 | >> To think about
18:50 | >> usually the fourth quarter is a good
18:52 | quarter.
18:53 | >> Yeah. What's your little
18:56 | >> selling May?
18:58 | >> Sell in May. Uh, come back Halloween
19:00 | day.
19:01 | >> Halloween day.
19:02 | >> Looks like it's working out this year.
19:05 | Third quarter. So far down 3%.
19:09 | As long as nothing goes nuts in the next
19:12 | three or four weeks. Yeah, that that
19:14 | that
19:17 | uh item will work out again this year.
19:21 | >> Okay.
19:25 | uh interest rates they've gone up not
19:28 | only because the Fed raised rates but
19:30 | because
19:32 | rates in the market have gone up.
19:36 | >> Yeah.
19:37 | And that seems now to be
19:42 | like a problem. Like they've gone up too
19:44 | much now. You know, the 30-year ended
19:48 | September at 5.3%.
19:53 | Now it's almost 5.7%.
19:56 | >> Could
19:58 | you're saying rates are going up
20:00 | generally?
20:00 | >> Mhm.
20:01 | >> Could the Fed have resisted that or
20:04 | would that
20:04 | >> I think that that would have made it
20:06 | worse.
20:07 | >> Okay. So So this is kind of a natural
20:09 | thing.
20:10 | >> Well, couple things have come out in the
20:13 | last three or four days. One was uh the
20:17 | New York Federal Reserve put out a
20:20 | report saying that this rise in interest
20:23 | rates is tied to the tariffs
20:26 | and to the uh war in Iran.
20:30 | That without those two
20:33 | inflation would be around 1%.
20:37 | >> Uh
20:40 | >> you always got to have something to
20:41 | blame something on.
20:42 | >> Yeah. Ah,
20:43 | >> and then [snorts] the International
20:44 | Monetary Fund came out and said that
20:49 | inflation is and interest rates have
20:51 | gotten out of hand and that countries
20:53 | are going to central banks and others
20:54 | are going to have to do something
20:57 | drastic, meaning really raise rates to
21:00 | prevent this thing from really,
21:03 | you know, going faster in the wrong
21:06 | direction. something somewhere I saw a
21:08 | headline saying that uh the Fed
21:10 | governors are agreeing that it's
21:13 | probably going to raise rates again this
21:14 | in September
21:16 | >> uh in October when they meet yes this
21:18 | month uh yeah I mean it's oh it depends
21:21 | on what day you look at the futures
21:23 | markets some some days they're
21:24 | definitely going to raise other days
21:26 | absolutely not but
21:29 | next week the middle of each month you
21:31 | have the latest inflation number come
21:33 | out that's probably going to determine
21:34 | what they do at the next meeting at the
21:37 | end of this month.
21:39 | >> Keep checking gas, buddy
21:41 | >> and home heating oil.
21:44 | >> Ah, okay. Yeah, we we'll do that.
21:48 | >> Mhm.
21:51 | >> Yep. And that's going to, you know,
21:54 | especially around here. I mean, that's
21:57 | going to really hurt people, right?
21:58 | because you you got gasoline everyone
22:01 | uses home heating oil a lot of people
22:03 | use food prices uh people got to eat
22:08 | that's like how do people
22:12 | get through all that I'm going to give
22:14 | you a little quote you can quote me on
22:16 | this
22:17 | and I'm not profound but does not diesel
22:21 | drive everything
22:22 | >> yeah you call you send Amazon that
22:27 | little wagon comes It's diesel,
22:29 | >> right?
22:30 | >> Uh and all the trucks across the
22:32 | country.
22:32 | >> Yeah.
22:33 | >> Diesel.
22:34 | >> Mhm.
22:35 | >> What's the diesel situation?
22:39 | >> It's at all time highs, right? I don't
22:40 | know over $6 a gallon now.
22:44 | >> Well, okay. Um I had uh I've been
22:48 | investigating alternatives because I
22:51 | don't think he uh propane,
22:55 | which we heat with, is going down. I'm
22:58 | you know this is wicked shaka.
23:00 | >> Okay.
23:00 | >> I don't think it's going down.
23:02 | >> Okay.
23:03 | >> Um so I looked into the there is a a
23:06 | system you can do
23:08 | um uh geothermal.
23:11 | >> Okay. Yeah.
23:12 | >> And that would do if I put that in
23:15 | that would do
23:18 | you I would heat my house with that and
23:20 | >> it wouldn't cost but to get it
23:23 | ends up could be closer to $80,000.
23:27 | Okay.
23:28 | >> Now, uh, that does cause a hot to to
23:34 | fibrillate. I don't know if that's
23:35 | really the word, but when I when I saw
23:37 | that, I said,
23:39 | >> "Okay, but what's the alternative?" Oh,
23:42 | $80,000.
23:45 | If if
23:47 | it depends on the multiple of increase
23:51 | in propane,
23:52 | >> right?
23:52 | >> If it goes down, well, that's the
23:54 | stupidest thing you could ever do.
23:56 | >> Correct. But if it really really really
23:58 | really were able were to go up, say like
24:01 | I I heard somebody say, "Oh, it could go
24:03 | up to two oil or patrol 200 or it could
24:07 | so say it it goes to 200." Say it goes
24:10 | to 400.
24:11 | >> That's a a great deal.
24:13 | >> Mhm.
24:14 | >> Needless to say, I didn't sign on the
24:16 | dotted line.
24:17 | >> Yeah. Um,
24:19 | and I may regret it in a a year or two,
24:22 | but you just, you know, I don't find a
24:24 | lot of money walk I walk along the
24:26 | streets.
24:27 | >> Right. Right. Right. Yeah. I don't think
24:31 | heating oil, which is what I use, is
24:34 | going back to $3.69
24:38 | where it was last year.
24:39 | >> Yeah.
24:40 | >> Maybe it goes to low fours, but it's
24:43 | never going back to where it was. And
24:46 | the risk of course is it could go a lot
24:49 | higher.
24:53 | But there's a lot of people who you know
24:57 | you know you hear the story you know
24:58 | most people cannot afford to pay a
25:02 | um a surprise bill. Well that's your
25:05 | energy bill. Now
25:08 | >> what do they do?
25:11 | You watching two people, Mike and
25:13 | Richard, who know what the problem is,
25:16 | but do not know what the answer is.
25:19 | >> No, I mean, you know, I think I think a
25:22 | lot of it is tied to,
25:25 | you know,
25:27 | Russia, Ukraine, US, Iran, Israel, like
25:32 | >> you you think Yeah. You think over where
25:34 | the oil where a lot of oil comes from.
25:36 | >> It's not only that. It's like the
25:38 | fertilizer.
25:40 | >> Yeah. this to to make food in this
25:42 | country comes from there.
25:44 | >> Yeah. And
25:46 | you know, we probably
25:49 | got in over our head
25:53 | and now there's there's really
25:56 | >> It's not even probably. We're in over
25:59 | our freaking heads.
26:00 | >> Yeah. Oh, yeah.
26:01 | >> Okay.
26:01 | >> Yeah. And uh
26:02 | >> you you're so cautious, Michael. Well, I
26:05 | am I'm not optimistic it's going to end
26:09 | anytime soon. That there there's there's
26:12 | no reason for it to end.
26:14 | >> Which is back to my why don't even vote
26:17 | folks. That's you know
26:18 | >> Yeah.
26:19 | >> Yeah. Your your candidates are jokes.
26:21 | They don't have a clue.
26:23 | >> Yeah. There's been no opposition and
26:25 | >> and we're we're behind on them. We got
26:27 | to move out here on the technicals.
26:30 | >> Yeah. The the technicals improved a
26:32 | little bit. still not great. You know,
26:34 | the best rate of those composite rating
26:37 | of those four indicators, the moving
26:39 | average, the volatility index, the
26:41 | oscillator, and the uh fear and greed
26:44 | index, you know, the best they can be is
26:45 | plus five. The worst they can be is
26:47 | negative -2. Um they're at zero right
26:49 | now. So, they're right in the middle. Uh
26:52 | that's not great after a big loss in the
26:56 | market
26:57 | in September. you know, we improved from
27:00 | -2 to zero, but that's not much of an
27:03 | improvement for the size of loss that we
27:05 | had in the market. So,
27:06 | >> if we could go if we could go to
27:09 | different if it had a different number
27:10 | system just could be, but um it's like
27:16 | there's really nothing out there that's
27:18 | going to say this is going to correct
27:20 | itself
27:22 | quickly. And I think it's it's all tied
27:25 | to to inflation and interest rates and
27:29 | >> well which goes down to major news.
27:31 | >> Correct.
27:32 | >> Fed hiked by uh 25 basis points to four.
27:36 | I'm not saying that as a 4% is not a
27:40 | huge
27:40 | >> no
27:42 | >> no. Um
27:44 | and they're likely to raise rates again.
27:47 | Walsh had his third press conference and
27:48 | the third time the market did not like
27:50 | what what what he said. didn't go down
27:52 | as much as the prior two times, but as
27:55 | he was talking, the market went down 500
27:57 | points. So, that tells you that, you
28:00 | know, the the people in the no
28:04 | uh didn't like what they what he said.
28:07 | And interest rates around the world are
28:08 | are now increasing, right? European
28:10 | Central Bank, Japan,
28:13 | um Canada and England did not do it. But
28:17 | you know the trend is higher interest
28:19 | rates
28:21 | and we celebrated the
28:24 | 25th anniversary of 9/11
28:27 | >> is the word celebrate. Well, that's what
28:29 | it's funny cuz that's what
28:30 | >> observed maybe.
28:32 | >> Well,
28:34 | one paper which I won't name used the
28:37 | term celebrate.
28:40 | You would have probably choose a
28:41 | different word. I would maybe just said
28:44 | the 25th anniversary of but anyways the
28:47 | stock market if we recall that time was
28:49 | closed for six days. That was the
28:51 | longest closure since the Great
28:52 | Depression
28:54 | and people panicked, right? They wanted
28:57 | to get out of the market and whatnot.
28:59 | Well, had you stayed there,
29:03 | the market has since day has returned
29:05 | 12% annualized.
29:08 | So we can
29:09 | >> and I'm not going to say what I usually
29:11 | say,
29:13 | >> right? But so all this stuff,
29:19 | it's entertainment, but it doesn't
29:21 | really mean anything because if you stay
29:22 | in there long term, right? You're going
29:26 | to get the ups and downs, and there are
29:28 | more history shows there's more ups than
29:29 | more downs. Had you put $10,000 in on
29:33 | 911 that when the market reopened and
29:36 | didn't touch it, didn't add anything
29:38 | today, you'd have 115,000.
29:41 | That works out to 12%.
29:42 | >> And when you did that, Mike
29:44 | >> Mhm.
29:44 | >> And when I did that,
29:45 | >> yeah,
29:46 | >> what the heck are we doing here? No.
29:48 | >> Do we have 10,000? That was the that
29:51 | might have been the problem. But no,
29:52 | it's like so people get so tied up in
29:55 | the shortterm dayto-day stuff that
29:58 | they're never in it long enough to
30:01 | >> where do we mostly live?
30:03 | >> Oh, in the present.
30:04 | >> Yeah. And that's our problem. Yeah,
30:06 | you're right. It's it's I haven't done
30:09 | any genius uh activity yet.
30:12 | >> Yeah.
30:14 | >> Yeah. Then that's the that's the you
30:17 | know oil is around 100.
30:19 | But before we end we do have some good
30:22 | news.
30:24 | Uh the Red Sox second year in a row lost
30:28 | in the wild card to the Yankees.
30:31 | That's that's good news because last
30:33 | year when they did
30:35 | uh the market went up 9.4% 4% from the
30:38 | day they lost the wild card final wild
30:42 | card game in 2025 to the time they lost
30:45 | the final wild card game in 2026.
30:48 | So, is this a $10,000 event?
30:52 | >> Uh, not quite, but close enough. 9.4%.
30:57 | So, that's a good news.
31:00 | >> Okay. Um, that's that's
31:03 | >> as somebody who spent his first probably
31:07 | 15 years of life thinking that um Fenway
31:11 | Park was a cathedral.
31:12 | >> Yep.
31:13 | >> Uh that that's not exactly great news.
31:17 | >> No, but for the market it is.
31:21 | >> All right.
31:22 | >> And it took almost half an hour to
31:24 | finally find some good news.
31:28 | >> What a pessimistic.
31:29 | >> And we'll end on even better news. Uh
31:32 | the Yankees have been eliminated from
31:34 | >> Hallelujah. So it it can't get any
31:38 | better than that. We probably should
31:39 | stop.
31:40 | >> All right. So, um inflation going
31:44 | >> it's going in the wrong direction. We
31:46 | know that leading economic indicators is
31:48 | getting a better which is a good sign.
31:51 | Uh and um jobless the labor market not
31:56 | much changing. I mean very few layoffs.
32:00 | uh layoffs, weekly layoffs are near are
32:02 | near a 57-year low
32:07 | and uh jobs are still being created.
32:11 | Unemployment is staying relatively low.
32:14 | So we could be in a the worst case
32:17 | scenario where
32:20 | unemployment stays low but inflation
32:22 | keeps going up.
32:25 | Uh
32:26 | >> that is not a good
32:27 | >> they call that stagflation. Yes, I
32:29 | remember. I remember stagflation.
32:31 | >> Yeah, that's that's probably the worst
32:33 | of anything.
32:35 | >> Um,
32:36 | worse than a recession, worse than um
32:40 | not worse than a depression, but worse
32:42 | than a recession is stagflation where
32:44 | you just get ever higher and higher,
32:48 | you know, the the Great Depression. You
32:50 | know why they called it a depression?
32:52 | >> No.
32:53 | >> Because they thought recession will
32:55 | sound too bad.
32:56 | >> Okay.
32:59 | um that would that spo I I've heard
33:03 | that.
33:03 | >> Okay.
33:04 | >> Um so what's the worst that could
33:08 | happen? We could find out.
33:10 | >> Right. But I think the key is you've got
33:12 | to get interest rates
33:15 | to start to come down. And the only way
33:17 | you're going to do that is you're going
33:18 | to have the Fed's going to have to keep
33:19 | raising them to
33:22 | cut off to slow the economy to affect
33:27 | jobless claims and employment
33:30 | and unemployment. You're going to need
33:32 | to see unemployment go up. You're going
33:33 | to see have to see layoffs increase and
33:35 | less jobs created to slow down
33:40 | inflation, which will then allow the Fed
33:43 | to
33:45 | stop raising interest rates. And I think
33:48 | that's a well the M the International
33:50 | Monetary Fund couple days ago
33:52 | essentially said that that this is
33:55 | really at a point now where it's
33:57 | starting to get out of control and you
33:59 | could get back to the stagflation
34:01 | periods which was not good for the stock
34:03 | market.
34:05 | We're not I'm I'm not gonna beat this
34:08 | drum uh too too. Well, maybe I will, but
34:11 | no. Um
34:14 | what I think we would be a discussion
34:17 | for a PhD candidate would be
34:21 | is um central banking
34:24 | just a waste. It just always ends up
34:27 | these cycles that get worse and worse.
34:30 | >> Yeah. Well, they're always chasing
34:32 | something.
34:32 | >> Yeah.
34:33 | >> Right. With that, ladies and gentlemen,
34:36 | we've solved all the problems of the
34:38 | universe and we hope you will be back
34:41 | here next month. We might have a new
34:44 | Congress or uh we might have an
34:48 | improvement
34:50 | economically or
34:53 | we might [music] have more war.
34:56 | We can have whatever we don't want.
35:00 | >> Correct.
35:02 | Mike Kov, [music] Richard Morov. See you
35:06 | again in a month. Thank you very much.
35:09 | [music]